US by-election: What will be the fallout?

Asoke K. Laha
President & MD, Interra IT 

I am writing on recent by-elections held in the US. When President Trump was elected in 2016, someone close to me said wryly that he stopped predicting things since his predictions had gone haywire after Trump’s historic win. On the eve of the election day, media, political consultants and major polls predicted that Hillary Clinton would win by landslide.  The only issue debated was the size of victory, and who would be the secretary of state and other high-ranking political appointees. Trump was able to articulate his vision concisely and clearly - Make America Great Again,  while Clinton’s message was vague and was changing on a regular basis. She tried to sell her resume in long paragraphs, instead of a clear vision. Although Trump was criticized by liberal press on his views on immigration,  his views were largely distorted by media. He supports legal immigration. His views on immigrants are more conditioned by the belief that the US sacrificed a lot more for other countries than it should have, economically, politically and perhaps emotionally. Trump had  not run  for political office in the past. He did not  cut his teeth in the political cauldron in order to modulate his thoughts and actions to suit each situation, nor did he learn to speak in politically Correct language.  His outlook and mannerisms are that of a businessman and that actions are quick and swift and cannot mask his emotions and behavior, which come spontaneously. In that sense, when he mimics an Indian, Chinese or Japanese, it should be just wished away and not to be used as a fodder to project him as a dictator or an obsessed man. He has his own rules and borders as to what to do, what to think and he sets his own limits.

Did the by-election result disappoint  President? The pitch of the Democrats and pollsters was that there would be a “blue wave” in their electoral prospects. That did not happen as Republicans still have the upper hand in Senate, which has 100 seats.

What I am trying to  figure out  is  whether he would be as active as before? Going by what he had done immediately after the election results were out-firing the Attorney General and replacing  office  with his own chosen man - does indicate that President Trump cannot  be tempered by the vicissitudes of the time. He is as aggressive as before. The Trump administration on 8th November unveiled tough new rules on the asylum process. The new rule, announced by the Justice Department and Homeland Security, declares that immigrants who illegally cross the border will be stripped of their eligibility to receive asylum in the U.S. The action is one of the first taken by Matthew Whitaker in his newly appointed role as acting attorney general. Whitaker, who was Attorney General Jeff Sessions’ chief of staff, got the promotion after Trump fired Sessions a day earlier.

Let me come to the brass tacks. Will all these affect the US administration and apply a brake to the heightened pace of growth it is experiencing now? US economy is booming beyond expectations, unemployment rate of 3.5% is lowest during the last fifteen years.  As a business man first, President’s apprehensions are more regarding square off of the tax benefits to the tune of US$ 1.5 trillion he had given to the corporations in the next 10 years so. That can work  well only when the corporations are given environs to work under a low tax regime.

Yet another issue that is being hotly debated is whether the President can come back into the office in 2020, when the general elections are due. I feel, no one can now write off Trump since he can bounce back. Of course, he has to improve upon his ratings considerably. He has created a good track record in the economics and business side. The unemployment rate is at an all-time low. The immigration card he played has partly paid off since the wage rate has gone up in the US since the employers have to appoint only the locals and not the illegal migrants for all and sundry jobs. With the judges handpicked by the President, it may not be a big deal to sail through the rough waters in the judiciary as well.

What will be the impact on India? Hopefully, the US administration would go slow in making granting of H1-B visas less stringent as also in granting green card to begin with for professionals and allowing their spouses to work there. Also, there are talks going on for lifting the additional tariffs on steel and aluminum. It is pertinent that India did not retaliate against the imposition of higher duties unlike China and other countries. That may weigh odds in favor of India.

Coming back to the question whether there will be any policy change on the part of Trump administration to build bridges with other countries in the changed environs. How can you imagine the US growing in a silo on a sustainable basis? It no longer can produce and consume for itself. How can it market its products and services, if the rest of the world live in a squeezed ambience? I am sure that President Trump realizes this and perhaps, that is also the key to re-election in 2020.