Pandemic will drive millions to change occupation, as per McKinsey

As more than 100 million workers – one of every 16 across the eight countries surveyed, including India – may need to switch jobs to different occupations. This is an increase of 12% overall and up to 25% in advanced economies compared with the period before the pandemic.

Nearly 18 million people in India may need to change occupation by 2030, according to the latest report on ‘The future of work after Covid 19’ by McKinsey Global Institute. However, in India, the number of workers who may need to make job transitions is likely to remain stable.

“In India, the number of workers who may need to make job transitions by 2030 is likely to remain stable after Covid-19, compared to before the pandemic. This is in large part because the main trend determining how many workers may need to change occupations is the continuing migration of workers from the agriculture sector to the manufacturing and service sectors. This will continue even post-pandemic,” said Anu Madgavkar, co-author and partner of McKinsey Global Institute. “In addition, long-term trends like a growing labour force, rising income and urbanisation will continue to dominate,” she added.

The research examined the impact of Covid-19 on work in China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Spain, the UK and the US. The report also highlights three trends that will persist in varying degrees after the pandemic. First is the hybrid remote work that will continue even after the pandemic but in differing degrees.

The potential for remote working will be lower in India compared to China and other advanced economies. Only 5% workers could work from home 3-5 days a week in India compared to 20-25% in advanced economies. The survey also showed a 20% long-term reduction in business travel due to virtual tools across the eight countries.

The report states that the ecommerce and the “delivery economy” which grew two to five times faster in 2020 than before the pandemic, are likely to continue at elevated levels. Surveys suggest long-term use of these digital channels will persist at 50-75% of their peak. The trend is disrupting jobs in the travel and leisure arenas and is hastening the decline of low-wage jobs in brick and mortar stores and restaurants to jobs in distribution centres and last-mile delivery.

According to the India findings of the report, customer and food service may see fewer jobs due to trends accelerated by Covid-19, driving fewer transitions out of agriculture. The top growing occupational categories in India include health professionals, creatives and arts management, health aides, technicians and wellness, STEM professionals, and business/legal professionals. The top declining occupational categories include food services, office support, production, customer service and sales, and agriculture.

The survey also shows that in a post-Covid-scenario, almost all labour demand growth could be in high-wage occupations. Women, less-educated workers, ethnic minorities and immigrants may need to make more occupation transitions in the post-pandemic world.