Global debt jumps to $226 tn; India's debt rose to 89.6% in 2020 says IMF

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said global debt has jumped to a new high of $226 trillion with India’s dues projected to rise to 90.6 per cent in 2021, due to COVID-19 and policies put in place to respond to it. Advanced economies and China contributed over 90% to the accumulation of debt in 2020 and the remaining emerging economies and low-income developing countries contributed only around seven per cent. India's debt increased to 89.6% of its GDP in 2020 from 68.9% in 2016. This increase is, by far, the largest on record. This figure includes both public and non-financial private sector debt.

The remaining emerging economies and low-income developing countries contributed only around seven percent. It is projected to jump to 90.6 percent in 2021 and then decline to 88.8 percent in 2022, to gradually reach 85.2 percent in 2026. The IMF said risks to the fiscal outlook are elevated. A scaling up of vaccine production and delivery, especially to emerging markets and low-income developing countries, would limit further damage to the global economy.

Constraints on financing are particularly severe for poorer countries. Noting that in 2020, fiscal policy proved its worth, he said the increase in public debt, in 2020, was fully justified by the need to respond to COVID-19 and its economic, social, and financial consequences. But the increase is expected to be one-off. After that it is projected to stabilise at about 97 percent of GDP. These debt dynamics are driven by a strong contribution from nominal GDP growth, accompanied by a much more gradual reduction in the primary deficit, he said.

The IMF further said that, risks to the fiscal outlook are elevated. A scaling up of vaccine production and delivery, especially to emerging markets and low-income developing countries, would limit further damage to the global economy. On the downside, new variants of the virus, low vaccine coverage in many countries, and delays in some people’s acceptance of vaccination could inflict new damage and increase pressures on public budgets. The realisation of contingent liabilities including loan and guarantee programmes may also lead to unexpected increases in government debt, it releases in the report.